Computational Deconvolution of Cell Type-Specific Gene Expression in COPD and IPF Lungs Reveals Disease Severity Associations.

RATIONALE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are debilitating diseases associated with divergent histopathological changes in the lungs. At present, due to cost and technical limitations, profiling cell types is not practical in large epidemiology cohorts (n>1000). Here, we used computational deconvolution to identify cell types in COPD and IPF lungs whose abundances and cell type-specific gene expression are associated with disease diagnosis and severity. METHODS: We analyzed lung tissue RNA-seq data from 1026 subjects (COPD, n=465; IPF, n=213; control, n=348) from the Lung Tissue Research Consortium. We performed RNA-seq deconvolution, querying thirty-eight discrete cell-type varieties in the lungs. We tested whether deconvoluted cell-type abundance and cell type-specific gene expression were associated with disease severity. RESULTS: The abundance score of twenty cell types significantly differed between IPF and control lungs. In IPF subjects, eleven and nine cell types were significantly associated with forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO), respectively. Aberrant basaloid cells, a rare cells found in fibrotic lungs, were associated with worse FVC and DLCO in IPF subjects, indicating that this aberrant epithelial population increased with disease severity. Alveolar type 1 and vascular endothelial (VE) capillary A were decreased in COPD lungs compared to controls. An increase in macrophages and classical monocytes was associated with lower DLCO in IPF and COPD subjects. In both diseases, lower non-classical monocytes and VE capillary A cells were associated with increased disease severity. Alveolar type 2 cells and alveolar macrophages had the highest number of genes with cell type-specific differential expression by disease severity in COPD and IPF. In IPF, genes implicated in the pathogenesis of IPF, such as matrix metallopeptidase 7, growth differentiation factor 15, and eph receptor B2, were associated with disease severity in a cell type-specific manner. CONCLUSION: Utilization of RNA-seq deconvolution enabled us to pinpoint cell types present in the lungs that are associated with the severity of COPD and IPF. This knowledge offers valuable insight into the alterations within tissues in more advanced illness, ultimately providing a better understanding of the underlying pathological processes that drive disease progression.

A multidimensional classifier to support lung transplant referral in patients with pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Lung transplantation remains the sole curative option for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but donor organs remain scarce, and many eligible patients die before transplant. Tools to optimize the timing of transplant referrals are urgently needed. METHODS: Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was applied to clinical and proteomic data generated as part of a prospective cohort study of interstitial lung disease (ILD) to derive clinical, proteomic, and multidimensional logit models of near-term death or lung transplant within 18 months of blood draw. Model-fitted values were dichotomized at the point of maximal sensitivity and specificity, and decision curve analysis was used to select the best-performing classifier. We then applied this classifier to independent IPF and non-IPF ILD cohorts to determine test performance characteristics. Cohorts were restricted to patients aged ≤72 years with body mass index 18 to 32 to increase the likelihood of transplant eligibility. RESULTS: IPF derivation, IPF validation, and non-IPF ILD validation cohorts consisted of 314, 105, and 295 patients, respectively. A multidimensional model comprising 2 clinical variables and 20 proteins outperformed stand-alone clinical and proteomic models. Following dichotomization, the multidimensional classifier predicted near-term outcome with 70% sensitivity and 92% specificity in the IPF validation cohort and 70% sensitivity and 80% specificity in the non-IPF ILD validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: A multidimensional classifier of near-term outcomes accurately discriminated this end-point with good test performance across independent IPF and non-IPF ILD cohorts. These findings support refinement and prospective validation of this classifier in transplant-eligible individuals.

Use of Race-Specific Equations in Pulmonary Function Tests Impedes Potential Eligibility for Care and Treatment of Pulmonary Fibrosis.

RATIONALE: The use of race-specific reference values to evaluate pulmonary function has long been embedded into clinical practice; however, there is a growing consensus that this practice may be inappropriate and that use of race-neutral equations should be adopted to improve access to healthcare. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate if using race-neutral equations to assess percent predicted forced vital capacity (FVC%pred) impacts eligibility for clinical trials, antifibrotic therapy and referral for lung transplantation in Black, Hispanic/Latino, and White patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) Methods: FVC%pred values for patients from the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry were calculated using race-specific (Hankinson 1999), race-agnostic (Global Lung Function Initiative [GLI]-2012), and race-neutral (GLI-2022 or GLI-Global) equations. Eligibility for ILD clinical trials (FVC%pred >45% and <90%), antifibrotic therapy (FVC%pred >55% and <82%), and lung transplantation referral (FVC%pred <70%) using GLI-2022 and GLI-2012 were compared with that of Hankinson 1999. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were available for 1882 patients (Black, n=104; Hispanic/Latino, n=103; White, n=1675), and outcomes were evaluated in 1531 patients with FVC%pred within ±90 days of Registry enrollment (Black, n=78; Hispanic/Latino, n=72; White, n=1381). Black patients were younger at consent and more likely to be female than Hispanic/Latino or White patients. Compared with GLI-2022, Hankinson's 1999 criteria misclassified 22% of Black patients, 14% of Hispanic/Latino patients, and 12% of White patients for ILD clinical trial eligibility; misclassified 21% of Black patients, 17% of Hispanic/Latino patients, and 19% of White patients for antifibrotic therapy eligibility; and misclassified 6% of Black patients, 14% of Hispanic/Latino patients, and 12% of White patients for lung transplantation referral. Similar trends were observed when comparing GLI-2012 with Hankinson 1999. CONCLUSIONS: Misclassification of patients for critical interventions is highly prevalent when using Hankinson's 1999 criteria and highlights the need to consider adopting the race-neutral GLI-2022 for enhanced accuracy and more equitable representation in pulmonary healthcare. Our results make a compelling case for re-evaluating the use of race as a physiological variable and emphasize the pressing need for continuous innovation to ensure equal and optimal care for all patients, regardless of their race or ethnicity. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02758808 Primary source of funding: This analysis was sponsored by F. Hoffmann-La Roche, Ltd./Genentech, Inc.

Meaningful Endpoints for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) Clinical Trials: Emphasis on 'Feels, Functions, Survives'. Report of a Collaborative Discussion in a Symposium with Direct Engagement from Representatives of Patients, Investigators, the National Institutes of Health, a Patient Advocacy Organization, and a Regulatory Agency.

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) carries significant mortality and unpredictable progression, with limited therapeutic options. Designing trials with patient-meaningful endpoints, enhancing the reliability and interpretability of results, and streamlining the regulatory approval process are of critical importance to advancing clinical care in IPF. Methods: A landmark in-person symposium in June 2023 assembled 43 participants from the US and internationally, including patients with IPF, investigators, and regulatory representatives, to discuss the immediate future of IPF clinical trial endpoints. Patient advocates were central to discussions, which evaluated endpoints according to regulatory standards and the FDA's 'feels, functions, survives' criteria. Results: Three themes emerged: 1) consensus on endpoints mirroring the lived experiences of patients with IPF; 2) consideration of replacing forced vital capacity (FVC) as the primary endpoint, potentially by composite endpoints that include 'feels, functions, survives' measures or FVC as components; 3) support for simplified, user-friendly patient-reported outcomes (PROs) as either components of primary composite endpoints or key secondary endpoints, supplemented by functional tests as secondary endpoints and novel biomarkers as supportive measures (FDA Guidance for Industry (Multiple Endpoints in Clinical Trials) available at: https://www.fda.gov/media/162416/download). Conclusions: This report, detailing the proceedings of this pivotal symposium, suggests a potential turning point in designing future IPF clinical trials more attuned to outcomes meaningful to patients, and documents the collective agreement across multidisciplinary stakeholders on the importance of anchoring IPF trial endpoints on real patient experiences-namely, how they feel, function, and survive. There is considerable optimism that clinical care in IPF will progress through trials focused on patient-centric insights, ultimately guiding transformative treatment strategies to enhance patients' quality of life and survival.

Deep Learning Classification of Usual Interstitial Pneumonia Predicts Outcomes.

RATIONALE: Computed tomography (CT) enables noninvasive diagnosis of usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP), but enhanced image analyses are needed to overcome the limitations of visual assessment. OBJECTIVES: Apply multiple instance learning (MIL) to develop an explainable deep learning algorithm for prediction of UIP from CT and validate its performance in independent cohorts. METHODS: We trained a MIL algorithm using a pooled dataset (n=2,143) and tested it in three independent populations: data from a prior publication (n=127), a single-institution clinical cohort (n=239), and a national registry of patients with pulmonary fibrosis (n=979). We tested UIP classification performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with histologic UIP as ground truth. Cox proportional hazards and linear mixed effects models were used to examine associations between MIL predictions and survival or longitudinal forced vital capacity (FVC). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In two cohorts with biopsy data, MIL improved accuracy for histologic UIP (area under the curve [AUC] 0.77 [n=127] and 0.79 [n=239]) compared to visual assessment (AUC 0.65 and 0.71). In cohorts with survival data, MIL UIP classifications were significant for mortality ([n=239, mortality to April 2021] unadjusted hazard ratio 3.1 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.96, 4.91] p<0.001, and [n=979, mortality to July 2022] 3.64 95% CI [2.66, 4.97] p<0.001). Individuals classified as UIP positive by the algorithm had a significantly greater annual decline in FVC than those classified as UIP negative (-88 ml/year versus -45 ml/year, n=979 p<0.01), adjusting for extent of lung fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Computerized assessment using MIL identifies clinically significant features of UIP on CT. Such a method could improve confidence in radiologic assessment of patients with interstitial lung disease, potentially enabling earlier and more precise diagnosis.

Deep Learning-based Fibrosis Extent on Computed Tomography Predicts Outcome of Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Disease Independent of Visually Assessed Computed Tomography Pattern.

Rationale: Radiologic pattern has been shown to predict survival in patients with fibrosing interstitial lung disease. The additional prognostic value of fibrosis extent by quantitative computed tomography (CT) is unknown. Objectives: We hypothesized that fibrosis extent provides information beyond visually assessed CT pattern that is useful for outcome prediction. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of chest CT, demographics, longitudinal pulmonary function, and transplantation-free survival among participants in the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry. CT pattern was classified visually according to the 2018 usual interstitial pneumonia criteria. Extent of fibrosis was objectively quantified using data-driven textural analysis. We used Kaplan-Meier plots and Cox proportional hazards and linear mixed-effects models to evaluate the relationships between CT-derived metrics and outcomes. Results: Visual assessment and quantitative analysis were performed on 979 enrollment CT scans. Linear mixed-effect modeling showed that greater baseline fibrosis extent was significantly associated with the annual rate of decline in forced vital capacity. In multivariable models that included CT pattern and fibrosis extent, quantitative fibrosis extent was strongly associated with transplantation-free survival independent of CT pattern (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.05; P < 0.001; C statistic = 0.73). Conclusions: The extent of lung fibrosis by quantitative CT is a strong predictor of physiologic progression and survival, independent of visually assessed CT pattern.

Pulmonary Fibrosis Stakeholder Summit: A Joint NHLBI, Three Lakes Foundation, and Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Workshop Report.

Despite progress in elucidation of disease mechanisms, identification of risk factors, biomarker discovery, and the approval of two medications to slow lung function decline in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and one medication to slow lung function decline in progressive pulmonary fibrosis, pulmonary fibrosis remains a disease with a high morbidity and mortality. In recognition of the need to catalyze ongoing advances and collaboration in the field of pulmonary fibrosis, the NHLBI, the Three Lakes Foundation, and the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation hosted the Pulmonary Fibrosis Stakeholder Summit on November 8-9, 2022. This workshop was held virtually and was organized into three topic areas: 1) novel models and research tools to better study pulmonary fibrosis and uncover new therapies, 2) early disease risk factors and methods to improve diagnosis, and 3) innovative approaches toward clinical trial design for pulmonary fibrosis. In this workshop report, we summarize the content of the presentations and discussions, enumerating research opportunities for advancing our understanding of the pathogenesis, treatment, and outcomes of pulmonary fibrosis.

Effects of nintedanib on symptoms in patients with progressive pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Dyspnoea and cough can have a profound impact on the lives of patients with pulmonary fibrosis. We investigated the effects of nintedanib on the symptoms and impact of pulmonary fibrosis in patients with progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) in the INBUILD trial using the Living with Pulmonary Fibrosis (L-PF) questionnaire. METHODS: Patients had a fibrosing interstitial lung disease (ILD) (other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis) of >10% extent on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) and met criteria for ILD progression within the prior 24 months. Patients were randomised 1:1 to receive nintedanib or placebo. Changes in L-PF questionnaire scores from baseline to week 52 were assessed using mixed models for repeated measures. RESULTS: In total, 663 patients were treated. Compared with placebo, there were significantly smaller increases (worsenings) in adjusted mean L-PF questionnaire total (0.5 versus 5.1), symptoms (1.3 versus 5.3), dyspnoea (4.3 versus 7.8) and fatigue (0.7 versus 4.0) scores in the nintedanib group at week 52. L-PF questionnaire cough score decreased in the nintedanib group and increased in the placebo group (-1.8 versus 4.3). L-PF questionnaire impacts score decreased slightly in the nintedanib group and increased in the placebo group (-0.2 versus 4.6). Similar findings were observed in patients with a usual interstitial pneumonia-like fibrotic pattern on HRCT and in patients with other fibrotic patterns on HRCT. CONCLUSION: Based on changes in L-PF questionnaire scores, nintedanib reduced worsening of dyspnoea, fatigue and cough and the impacts of ILD over 52 weeks in patients with PPF.

Comparison of Pirfenidone and Nintedanib: Post Hoc Analysis of the CleanUP-IPF Study.

BACKGROUND: Antifibrotics are effective in slowing FVC decline in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). However, whether antifibrotic type is differentially associated with FVC decline remains inconclusive. RESEARCH QUESTION: Are there significant differences in 12-month FVC decline between pirfenidone and nintedanib? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A post hoc analysis was performed using the CleanUP-IPF trial (No. NCT02759120). Participants who reported using pirfenidone or nintedanib on enrollment into the trial were in the primary analysis. Spirometry was scheduled at baseline and the 12- and 24-month study visits. Linear mixed-effects models with random intercept and slope were used to examine changes in FVC over time. Models were adjusted for age, sex, smoking history, coronary artery disease history, baseline FVC, and 12-month spline term. Survival and nonelective respiratory hospitalization by antifibrotic type were determined using Cox regression models with adjustment for age, sex, smoking history, coronary artery disease history, and baseline FVC and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide. RESULTS: Out of the 513 participants with IPF randomized in the CleanUP-IPF trial, 407 reported using pirfenidone (n = 264, 65%) or nintedanib (n = 143, 35%). The pirfenidone group had more participants with a history of coronary artery disease than the nintedanib group (34.1% vs 20.3%, respectively). Patients treated with nintedanib had a higher 12-month visit FVC than patients treated with pirfenidone (mean difference, 106 mL; 95% CI, 34-178). This difference was attenuated at the 24-month study visit. There were no significant differences in overall survival and nonelective respiratory hospitalization between the pirfenidone- and nintedanib-treated groups. INTERPRETATION: Patients with IPF who used nintedanib had a slower 12-month FVC decline than pirfenidone in a post hoc analysis of a clinical trial.

Associations of Plasma Omega-3 Fatty Acids With Progression and Survival in Pulmonary Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Preclinical experiments suggest protective effects of omega-3 fatty acids and their metabolites in lung injury and fibrosis. Whether higher intake of omega-3 fatty acids is associated with disease progression and survival in humans with pulmonary fibrosis is unknown. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the associations of plasma omega-3 fatty acid levels (a validated marker of omega-3 nutritional intake) with disease progression and transplant-free survival in pulmonary fibrosis? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Omega-3 fatty acid levels were measured from plasma samples of patients with clinically diagnosed pulmonary fibrosis from the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (n = 150), University of Virginia (n = 58), and University of Chicago (n = 101) cohorts. The N-3 index (docosahexaenoic acid + eicosapentaenoic acid) was the primary exposure variable of interest. Linear-mixed effects models with random intercept and slope were used to examine associations of plasma omega-3 fatty acid levels with changes in FVC and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide over a period of 12 months. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine transplant-free survival. Stratified analyses by telomere length were performed in the University of Chicago cohort. RESULTS: Most of the cohort were patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (88%) and male patients (74%). One-unit increment in log-transformed N-3 index plasma level was associated with a change in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide of 1.43 mL/min/mm Hg per 12 months (95% CI, 0.46-2.41) and a hazard ratio for transplant-free survival of 0.44 (95% CI, 0.24-0.83). Cardiovascular disease history, smoking, and antifibrotic usage did not significantly modify associations. Omega-3 fatty acid levels were not significantly associated with changes in FVC. Higher eicosapentaenoic acid plasma levels were associated with longer transplant-free survival among University of Chicago participants with shorter telomere length (P value for interaction = .02). INTERPRETATION: Further research is needed to investigate underlying biological mechanisms and whether omega-3 fatty acids are a potential disease-modifying therapy.

Proteomic Biomarkers of Survival in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

RATIONALE: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) causes progressive lung scarring and high mortality. Reliable and accurate prognostic biomarkers are urgently needed. OBJECTIVE: To identify and validate circulating protein biomarkers of IPF survival. METHODS: High-throughput proteomic data were generated using prospectively collected plasma samples from patients with IPF from the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (discovery cohort) and the Universities of California-Davis, Chicago, and Virginia (validation cohort). Proteins associated with three-year transplant-free survival (TFS) were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Those associated with TFS after adjustment for false discovery in the discovery cohort were advanced for testing in the validation cohort, with proteins maintaining TFS association with consistent effect direction considered validated. After combining cohorts, functional analyses were performed, and machine learning used to derive a proteomic signature of TFS. MAIN RESULTS: Of 2921 proteins tested in the discovery cohort (n=871), 231 were associated with differential TFS. Of these, 140 maintained TFS association with consistent effect direction in the validation cohort (n=355). After combining cohorts, validated proteins with strongest TFS association were latent-transforming growth factor beta-binding protein 2 (HR 2.43, 95% CI 2.09-2.82), collagen alpha-1(XXIV) chain (HR 2.21; 95% CI 1.86-2.39) and keratin 19 (HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.47-1.74). In decision curve analysis, a proteomic signature of TFS outperformed a similarly derived clinical prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: In largest proteomic investigation of IPF outcomes performed to date, we identified and validated 140 protein biomarkers of TFS. These results shed important light on potential drivers of IPF progression.

Effect of Nintedanib in Patients with Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis in Subgroups with Differing Baseline Characteristics.

INTRODUCTION: In the INBUILD trial in patients with progressive pulmonary fibrosis other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), nintedanib slowed the rate of decline in forced vital capacity (FVC; mL/year) over 52 weeks compared with placebo. We assessed the efficacy of nintedanib across subgroups in the INBUILD trial by baseline characteristics. METHODS: We assessed the rate of decline in FVC over 52 weeks and time to progression of interstitial lung disease (ILD) (absolute decline from baseline in FVC % predicted > 10%) or death over the whole trial in subgroups based on sex, age, race, body mass index (BMI), time since diagnosis of ILD, FVC % predicted, diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLco) % predicted, composite physiologic index (CPI), GAP (gender, age, lung physiology) stage, use of anti-acid therapy and use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) at baseline. RESULTS: The effect of nintedanib versus placebo on reducing the rate of decline in FVC over 52 weeks was consistent across the subgroups by baseline characteristics analysed. Interaction p values did not indicate heterogeneity in the treatment effect between these subgroups (p > 0.05). Over the whole trial (median follow-up time ∼19 months), progression of ILD or death occurred in similar or lower proportions of patients treated with nintedanib than placebo across the subgroups analysed, with no heterogeneity detected between the subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: In the INBUILD trial, no heterogeneity was detected in the effect of nintedanib on reducing the rate of ILD progression across subgroups based on demographics, ILD severity or use of anti-acid therapy or DMARDs. These data support the use of nintedanib as a treatment for progressive pulmonary fibrosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02999178.

Factors associated with listing for lung transplantation in IPF patients: An analysis of the pulmonary fibrosis foundation registry.

Rationale and objectives: Lung transplantation is a potentially life-saving treatment option for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF); however, not all eligible candidates get referred and listed for transplantation. Amongst IPF patients within the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (PFF-R), we sought to determine the proportion of patients who undergo lung transplant listing and the characteristics associated with transplant listing. Methods: An analysis of IPF patients with at least six months of follow-up data was performed. Patients with well-established contraindications to lung transplantation were excluded. Two complementary analyses were performed. The "prevalent" population included all patients with IPF at time of enrollment into the registry. The "incident severe" population included all patients with IPF who progressed to GAP Stage 3. Results: Of the 2003 patients in the PFF-R, 475 patients were included in the "prevalent" population. Of this group, only 42 (8.8%) were either listed for or underwent lung transplant. Univariable analysis of the "prevalent" population found age (per 10 year increase, OR 0.531, p = 0.0025), percent predicted FVC (OR 0.572, p=<0.0001), percent predicted DLCO (OR 0.606, p < 0.0001), 6-min walk distance (per 50 m, OR 0.831, p = 0.019), and oxygen use at rest (OR 5.157, p < 0.0001) were predictive of listing. On multivariable analysis, age (per 10 year increase, OR 0.558, p = 0.0088), percent predicted FVC (OR 0.728, p = 0.0161), and oxygen use at rest (OR 3.264, p = 0.0029) remained significant predictors for lung transplant listing. The "incident severe" group consisted of 176 patients (8.8%). 24 patients (13.6%) from this cohort were either listed for or received a transplant. Only age (per 10 year increase, OR 0.0286, p = 0.0465) was associated with transplant listing on univariable analysis in the Incident severe population. Conclusion: Only a small proportion of potentially eligible patients with IPF are listed for lung transplantation, even when seen at pulmonary fibrosis centers of excellence. Advanced age appears to be the primary factor associated with failure to be listed. Further refinement of future registry data is required to more clearly delineate exact reasons for low rates of listing.

External validation and longitudinal application of the DO-GAP index to individualise survival prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Background: The Distance-Oxygen-Gender-Age-Physiology (DO-GAP) index has been shown to improve prognostication in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) compared to the Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) score. We sought to externally validate the DO-GAP index compared to the GAP index for baseline risk assessment in patients with IPF. Additionally, we evaluated the utility of serial change in the DO-GAP index in predicting survival. Methods: We performed an analysis of patients with IPF from the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation-Patient Registry (PFF-PR). Discrimination and calibration of the two models were assessed to predict transplant-free survival and IPF-related mortality. Joint longitudinal time-to-event modelling was utilised to individualise survival prediction based on DO-GAP index trajectory. Results: There were 516 patients with IPF from the PFF-PR with available demographics, pulmonary function tests, 6-min walk test data and outcomes included in this analysis. The DO-GAP index (C-statistic: 0.73) demonstrated improved discrimination in discerning transplant-free survival compared to the GAP index (C-statistic: 0.67). DO-GAP index calibration was adequate, and the model retained predictive accuracy to identify IPF-related mortality (C-statistic: 0.74). The DO-GAP index was similarly accurate in the subset of patients taking antifibrotic medications. Serial change in the DO-GAP index improved model discrimination (cross-validated area under the curve: 0.83) enabling the personalised prediction of disease trajectory in individual patients. Conclusion: The DO-GAP index is a simple, validated, multidimensional score that accurately predicts transplant-free survival in patients with IPF and can be adapted longitudinally in individual patients. The DO-GAP may also find use in studies of IPF to risk stratify patients and possibly as a clinical trial end-point.

Evaluation of Pulmonary Fibrosis Outcomes by Race and Ethnicity in US Adults.

Importance: Pulmonary fibrosis (PF) is characterized by progressive scarring of lung tissue and poor survival. Racial and ethnic minority populations face the greatest risk of morbidity and mortality from disparities impacting respiratory health, but the pattern of age at clinically relevant outcomes across diverse racial and ethnic populations with PF is unknown. Objective: To compare the age at PF-related outcomes and the heterogeneity in survival patterns among Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic White participants. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included adult patients with a PF diagnosis and used data from prospective clinical registries: the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Registry (PFFR) for the primary cohort and registries from 4 geographically distinct tertiary hospitals in the US for the external multicenter validation (EMV) cohort. Patients were followed between January 2003 and April 2021. Exposures: Race and ethnicity comparisons between Black, Hispanic, and White participants with PF. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age and sex distribution of participants were measured at the time of study enrollment. All-cause mortality and age at PF diagnosis, hospitalization, lung transplant, and death were assessed in participants over 14 389 person-years. Differences between racial and ethnic groups were compared using Wilcoxon rank sum tests, Bartlett 1-way analysis of variance, and χ2 tests, and crude mortality rates and rate ratios were assessed across racial and ethnic categories using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: In total, 4792 participants with PF were assessed (mean [SD] age, 66.1 [11.2] years; 2779 [58.0%] male; 488 [10.2%] Black, 319 [6.7%] Hispanic, and 3985 [83.2%] White); 1904 were in the PFFR and 2888 in the EMV cohort. Black patients with PF were consistently younger than White patients (mean [SD] age at baseline, 57.9 [12.0] vs 68.6 [9.6] years; P < .001). Hispanic and White patients were predominantly male (Hispanic: PFFR, 73 of 124 [58.9%] and EMV, 109 of 195 [55.9%]; and White: PFFR, 1090 of 1675 [65.1%] and EMV, 1373 of 2310 [59.4%]), while Black patients were less likely to be male (PFFR, 32 of 105 [30.5%] and EMV, 102 of 383 [26.6%]). Compared with White patients, Black patients had a lower crude mortality rate ratio (0.57 [95% CI, 0.31-0.97), but for Hispanic patients, the mortality rate ratio was similar to that of White patients (0.89; 95% CI, 0.57-1.35). Mean (SD) hospitalization events per person were highest among Black patients compared with Hispanic and White patients (Black: 3.6 [5.0]; Hispanic, 1.8 [1.4]; and White, 1.7 [1.3]; P < .001). Black patients were consistently younger than Hispanic and White patients at first hospitalization (mean [SD] age: Black, 59.4 [11.7] years; Hispanic, 67.5 [9.8] years; and White, 70.0 [9.3] years; P < .001), lung transplant (Black, 58.6 [8.6] years; Hispanic, 60.5 [6.1] years; and White, 66.9 [6.7] years; P < .001), and death (Black, 68.7 [8.4] years; Hispanic, 72.9 [7.6] years; and White, 73.5 [8.7] years; P < .001). These findings remained consistent in the replication cohort and in sensitivity analyses within prespecified deciles of age groups. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of participants with PF, racial and ethnic disparities, especially among Black patients, were found in PF-related outcomes, including earlier onset of death. Further research is essential to identify and mitigate the underlying responsible factors.

Expert consensus on the management of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease.

BACKGROUND: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a rare, complex, connective tissue disorder. Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is common in SSc, occurring in 35-52% of patients and accounting for 20-40% of mortality. Evolution of therapeutic options has resulted in a lack of consensus on how to manage this condition. This Delphi study was initiated to develop consensus recommendations based on expert physician insights regarding screening, progression, treatment criteria, monitoring of response, and the role of recent therapeutic advances with antifibrotics and immunosuppressants in patients with SSc-ILD. METHODS: A modified Delphi process was completed by pulmonologists (n = 13) and rheumatologists (n = 12) with expertise in the management of patients with SSc-ILD. Panelists rated their agreement with each statement on a Likert scale from - 5 (complete disagreement) to + 5 (complete agreement). Consensus was predefined as a mean Likert scale score of ≤ - 2.5 or ≥ + 2.5 with a standard deviation not crossing zero. RESULTS: Panelists recommended that all patients with SSc be screened for ILD by chest auscultation, spirometry with diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide, high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT), and/or autoantibody testing. Treatment decisions were influenced by baseline and changes in pulmonary function tests, extent of ILD on HRCT, duration and degree of dyspnea, presence of pulmonary hypertension, and potential contribution of reflux. Treatment success was defined as stabilization or improvement of signs or symptoms of ILD and functional status. Mycophenolate mofetil was identified as the initial treatment of choice. Experts considered nintedanib a therapeutic option in patients with progressive fibrotic ILD despite immunosuppressive therapy or patients contraindicated/unable to tolerate immunotherapy. Concomitant use of nintedanib with MMF/cyclophosphamide can be considered in patients with advanced disease at initial presentation, aggressive ILD, or significant disease progression. Although limited consensus was achieved on the use of tocilizumab, the experts considered it a therapeutic option for patients with early SSc and ILD with elevated acute-phase reactants. CONCLUSIONS: This modified Delphi study generated consensus recommendations for management of patients with SSc-ILD in a real-world setting. Findings from this study provide a management algorithm that will be helpful for treating patients with SSc-ILD and addresses a significant unmet need.

Nintedanib in children and adolescents with fibrosing interstitial lung diseases.

BACKGROUND: Childhood interstitial lung disease (ILD) comprises a spectrum of rare ILDs affecting infants, children and adolescents. Nintedanib is a licensed treatment for pulmonary fibrosis in adults. The primary objectives of the InPedILD trial were to determine the dose-exposure and safety of nintedanib in children and adolescents with fibrosing ILD. METHODS: Patients aged 6-17 years with fibrosing ILD on high-resolution computed tomography and clinically significant disease were randomised 2:1 to receive nintedanib or placebo for 24 weeks and then open-label nintedanib. Dosing was based on weight-dependent allometric scaling. Co-primary end-points were the area under the plasma concentration-time curve at steady state (AUCτ,ss) at weeks 2 and 26 and the proportion of patients with treatment-emergent adverse events at week 24. RESULTS: 26 patients received nintedanib and 13 patients received placebo. The geometric mean (geometric coefficient of variation) AUCτ,ss for nintedanib was 175 µg·h·L-1 (85.1%) in patients aged 6-11 years and 160 µg·h·L-1 (82.7%) in patients aged 12-17 years. In the double-blind period, adverse events were reported in 84.6% of patients in each treatment group. Two patients discontinued nintedanib due to adverse events. Diarrhoea was reported in 38.5% and 15.4% of the nintedanib and placebo groups, respectively. Adjusted mean±se changes in percentage predicted forced vital capacity at week 24 were 0.3±1.3% in the nintedanib group and -0.9±1.8% in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: In children and adolescents with fibrosing ILD, a weight-based dosing regimen resulted in exposure to nintedanib similar to adults and an acceptable safety profile. These data provide a scientific basis for the use of nintedanib in this patient population.

Progressive pulmonary fibrosis: an expert group consensus statement.

This expert group consensus statement emphasises the need for standardising the definition of progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (F-ILDs), with an accurate initial diagnosis being of paramount importance in ensuring appropriate initial management. Equally, case-by-case decisions on monitoring and management are essential, given the varying presentations of F-ILDs and the varying rates of progression. The value of diagnostic tests in risk stratification at presentation and, separately, the importance of a logical monitoring strategy, tailored to manage the risk of progression, are also stressed. The term "progressive pulmonary fibrosis" (PPF) exactly describes the entity that clinicians often face in practice. The importance of using antifibrotic therapy early in PPF (once initial management has failed to prevent progression) is increasingly supported by evidence. Artificial intelligence software for high-resolution computed tomography analysis, although an exciting tool for the future, awaits validation. Guidance is provided on pulmonary rehabilitation, oxygen and the use of non-invasive ventilation focused specifically on the needs of ILD patients with progressive disease. PPF should be differentiated from acute deterioration due to drug-induced lung toxicity or other forms of acute exacerbations. Referral criteria for a lung transplant are discussed and applied to patient needs in severe diseases where transplantation is not realistic, either due to access limitations or transplantation contraindications. In conclusion, expert group consensus guidance is provided on the diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of F-ILDs with specific focus on the recognition of PPF and the management of pulmonary fibrosis progressing despite initial management.

Safety, tolerability, and efficacy of pirfenidone in patients with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 study.

BACKGROUND: Interstitial lung disease is a known complication of rheumatoid arthritis, with a lifetime risk of developing the disease in any individual of 7·7%. We aimed to assess the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of pirfenidone for the treatment of patients with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD). METHODS: TRAIL1 was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial done in 34 academic centres specialising in interstitial lung disease in four countries (the UK, the USA, Australia, and Canada). Adults aged 18-85 years were eligible for inclusion if they met the 2010 American College of Rheumatology and European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology criteria for rheumatoid arthritis and had interstitial lung disease on a high-resolution CT scan imaging and, when available, lung biopsy. Exclusion criteria include smoking, clinical history of other known causes of interstitial lung disease, and coexistant clinically significant COPD or asthma. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 2403 mg oral pirfenidone (pirfenidone group) or placebo (placebo group) daily. The primary endpoint was the incidence of the composite endpoint of a decline from baseline in percent predicted forced vital capacity (FVC%) of 10% or more or death during the 52-week treatment period assessed in the intention-to-treat population. Key secondary endpoints included change in absolute and FVC% over 52 weeks, the proportion of patients with a decline in FVC% of 10% or more, and the frequency of progression as defined by Outcome Measures in Rheumatoid Arthritis Clinical Trials (OMERACT) in the intention-to-treat population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02808871. FINDINGS: From May 15, 2017, to March 31, 2020, 231 patients were assessed for inclusion, of whom 123 patients were randomly assigned (63 [51%] to the pirfenidone group and 60 [49%] to the placebo group). The trial was stopped early (March 31, 2020) due to slow recruitment and the COVID-19 pandemic. The difference in the proportion of patients who met the composite primary endpoint (decline in FVC% from baseline of 10% or more or death) between the two groups was not significant (seven [11%] of 63 patients in the pirfenidone group vs nine [15%] of 60 patients in the placebo group; OR 0·67 [95% CI 0·22 to 2·03]; p=0·48). Compared with the placebo group, patients in the pirfenidone group had a slower rate of decline in lung function, measured by estimated annual change in absolute FVC (-66 vs -146; p=0·0082) and FVC% (-1·02 vs -3·21; p=0·0028). The groups were similar with regards to the decline in FVC% by 10% or more (five [8%] participants in the pirfenidone group vs seven [12%] in the placebo group; OR 0·52 [95% CI 0·14-1·90]; p=0·32) and the frequency of progression as defined by OMERACT (16 [25%] in the pirfenidone group vs 19 [32%] in the placebo group; OR 0·68 [0·30-1·54]; p=0·35). There was no significant difference in the rate of treatment-emergent serious adverse events between the two groups, and there were no treatment-related deaths. INTERPRETATION: Due to early termination of the study and underpowering, the results should be interpreted with caution. Despite not meeting the composite primary endpoint, pirfenidone slowed the rate of decline of FVC over time in patients with RA-ILD. Safety in patients with RA-ILD was similar to that seen in other pirfenidone trials. FUNDING: Genentech.